Pakistan’s power regulator has conditionally approved an 11-year investment plan worth about $58 billion for electricity generation and transmission.
The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority approved Integrated System Plan 2025 on Friday. The plan covers 2025 to 2035 and replaces earlier generation capacity expansion plans.
However, the approval exposed serious concerns within the regulator. All three members, including the NEPRA chairman, attached more than 12 pages of dissenting or separate advisory notes to the 45-page ruling.
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They questioned why planners included or removed major projects. Members also challenged the decision to bypass the Council of Common Interests, which handles national energy policy and planning under the Constitution.
NEPRA limits scope of approval
“The Authority hereby approves the ISP-2025, to the extent of Revised Base/Recommended Case of IGCEP-2025 (excluding Battery Energy Storage System-BESS and K-Electric Ltd-KEL transmission line in 2028) together with the revised scope of Transmission System Expansion Plan (TSEP-2025), subject to redressal of the observations of the Authority,” the decision said.
NEPRA criticised changes made on advice from a Power Division technical committee. It said neither that committee nor the division could alter national electricity policy without returning to the CCI.
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The regulator also recorded contradictory submissions from the Independent System and Market Operator and the Power Planning and Monitoring Company.
Capacity plan carries $47 billion cost
ISP-2025 examined high, medium and low demand forecasts. These assume cumulative average GDP growth of 6.37 percent, 4.95 percent and 3.52 percent, respectively.
Planners selected the low-growth business-as-usual forecast under the Rationalised Capacity Addition assumption as their reference case.
That case adds 26,045MW by 2035. It includes 17,485MW of committed projects and 8,560MW of optimised capacity.
The plan retires 2,577MW and raises total installed capacity to 62,657MW. That figure includes 8,120MW of net-metered capacity.
New generation will cost an estimated $47.08 billion. Committed transmission projects require another $4.6 billion, while new expansion schemes need about $6.05 billion.
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The decision described this as “resulting in a cumulative transmission investment requirement of approximately $10.65bn over the planning horizon”.
Projects cover evacuation lines, grid reinforcements, extra-high-voltage substations, transformer upgrades and voltage-control facilities.
Storage and tariff questions remain
The plan adds a 40MW on-site plant for Gwadar and Makran after the Iran-US conflict disrupted imported electricity. Extending the national grid there remains technically and economically unviable.
ISMO initially excluded K-Electric’s competitive renewable projects. It later added the 269MW JCM Wind-Solar Hybrid Project at Dhabeji for the current fiscal year.
NEPRA rejected $900 million for battery storage pending a comprehensive technical and economic study. It wants evidence on need, optimal capacity, operation and cost-effectiveness.
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The regulator also objected to ISMO disclaiming responsibility for the accuracy, integrity and completeness of planning data.
ISMO and PPMC submitted conflicting positions on consumer tariffs. NEPRA ordered planners to quantify the impact and place it in the main report.
PPMC projects the consumer-end base tariff at Rs37.28 per unit by 2035, compared with Rs34 in 2024-25.
