Artificial intelligence investment is keeping global growth around 3%, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said Monday. However, she warned of a “slow-moving tsunami” threatening jobs, education and taxation.
Speaking at the IMF-World Bank annual meetings, she described a “demand shock, an investment shock” benefiting Asia. Advanced Asian economies could gain 0.5 to one percentage point of growth. Emerging Asian economies could gain 0.2 to 0.8 percentage point.
AI spending offsets energy shock
“AI, love it, hate it. It’s already here,” Georgieva said.
“That shift into higher gear is what is keeping the world economy growing at around 3%, despite the fact we are being dragged down by the energy supply shock,” she said.
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The IMF’s July forecast put 2026 global growth at 3%. It will publish updated projections Tuesday.
The weeklong Bangkok meetings expect 18,000 participants, including officials from the IMF’s 191 members. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Spanish Finance Minister Arcadi España will skip them for domestic priorities.
Georgieva identified the US, China and India as leading AI supply-chain producers. Asian hardware suppliers, including those in host Thailand, also stand to benefit.
Jobs, skills and taxation face change
IMF research suggests AI could augment, downgrade or eliminate 40% of jobs globally, rising to 60% in advanced economies.
Those figures measure exposure rather than predicted job losses. Earlier IMF research found that roughly half of exposed jobs in advanced economies could benefit through higher productivity.
Georgieva said an initial study showed 10% of US jobs already required AI skills. Routine jobs were shrinking, while lower-paying employment expanded in construction and data centres.
A shift from labour towards capital would also reshape government tax revenues.
“It is a transformative technology. It so completely changes how we work, how we live,” she said. Her own AI assistant now delivers a daily 30-second schedule briefing.
Graduate opportunities divide leaders
Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam urged governments to confront falling demand for graduates.
“There is a particular problem that we have to address very soon … and that is that, the first rung in employment, your first job upon graduation, is now seeing less demand,” he said.
He warned of a “new divergence” in growth and employment between developing and advanced economies.
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“AI is going to widen the divergence if we are too passive about it,” he said. “So we’ve got to do everything we can to first use AI to create good jobs and to create jobs that can be done well by human beings, can allow them to ride up a career ladder despite AI.”
World Bank President Ajay Banga, whose agenda prioritises jobs, questioned whether AI would destroy entry-level employment. He expected disruption mainly in advanced economies building large models.
“In the emerging markets, we are not into large language models,” he said.
Instead, the bank favours “small AI” requiring less computing power to improve productivity for farmers, health clinics and teachers.
